Valid Time: Monday–Sunday August 01 – 08, 2011
Feature(s) of Interest: A vigorous tropical wave some 250 miles east of the Martinique is becoming better organized this morning. A aircraft reconnaissance flight earlier this morning found no definite centre of circulation, but the NHC continues to give this system a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm later today or tomorrow. The disturbance is moving WNW at 15 mph and along this track most of the models are projecting a WNW path through Hispaniola and into SE Bahamas by Thursday of this week (see Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 below). Regardless of tropical cyclone development, this system will bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles today and tonight! Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Meanwhile, a TW in the eastern Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean by Thursday morning and cross the country of Belize by Friday evening. This system will have little support in the upper atmosphere as it nears the coast of Belize, and hence will produce little in the form of widespread thunderstorms. Upper level cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean and northern Central America will continue to support more outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over Belize during today and Tuesday. However, this activity will diminish by Wednesday morning as the upper level support shifts farther westward. A reduction in shower activity is expected for the rest of the working week and over the coming weekend, typical of the August maaga (meager) season.
Daily rainfall totals will range from 1.0-1.5 inches on Monday and Tuesday especially over central coastal areas and the South. River levels over the Toledo and Stann Creek districts are already at flood stage, and additional runoff will lead to more floods and flash floods in some localities. Residents in low lying communities should remain vigilant and motorists should be aware of localized flooding of some feeder roads… Click here to download full version of report.
