Officials Warn Against Complacency Ahead of 2026 Hurricane Season

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and runs through November 30th. On May 22nd, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted below-normal activity across the Atlantic basin. Despite the forecast, Belize, including communities such as San Pedro and Belize City, is being urged to remain prepared, as the National Meteorological Service warns that the country remains vulnerable throughout the entire season.
The quieter forecast is largely linked to the high likelihood that El Niño will develop during the summer months. El Niño conditions typically suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic through increased wind shear. NOAA is forecasting between eight and 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher. By comparison, the long-term average is approximately 14 named storms and seven hurricanes annually. NOAA estimates a 55% probability of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of near-normal activity, and only a 10% chance of above-normal conditions.
In comparison, the 2025 hurricane season produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Although slightly below average in overall storm numbers, the season proved unusually intense, with three systems reaching Category 5 strength. Belize avoided direct storm impacts during the 2025 season despite several powerful hurricanes developing across the basin.
Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon of the National Meteorological Service emphasized that even less-active seasons can still produce dangerous storms that can affect Belize with little warning. “The waters of the Caribbean are warm. We can have storms form nearby, and that can affect the area with very short notice,” Gordon stated during the opening ceremony of the Hurricane Awareness Tour.
Lieutenant Colonel David Gentile, Commander of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, also stressed that Belize remains vulnerable from June through November regardless of the season’s projected activity levels.
Officials continue encouraging residents not to become complacent despite the quieter forecast. The recent visit by the Hurricane Hunters aircraft to Belize in April formed part of early preparedness efforts coordinated with disaster management agencies and regional partners.
Authorities are urging residents to review evacuation plans, prepare emergency kits, and closely monitor official weather updates from the National Meteorological Service throughout the hurricane season. While forecasts suggest fewer storms in 2026 than in previous years, experts warn that warm Caribbean waters could still allow storms to develop rapidly near Belize, with limited warning time.