Prime Minister John Briceño has presented Belize’s national budget for the 2025/26 fiscal year, unveiling a $1.78 billion spending plan under the theme “From Promise to Performance.” Delayed from its usual March presentation due to the March 12 general elections, the budget outlines the government’s financial priorities amid a backdrop of robust economic recovery and ambitious social investments.
Briceño highlighted a dramatic turnaround from the fiscal crisis of 2020, citing an 8.2% GDP growth in 2024, second only to Guyana in the Western Hemisphere. Unemployment fell to 2.1%, and the national debt-to-GDP ratio was halved from 132% to 61%, seven years ahead of IMF projections. The government reported a primary surplus of 1.48% and capped the deficit at 0.26% of GDP for FY 2024/25. Poverty reduction was also emphasized, with the Multidimensional Poverty Index dropping to 22.1% and notable gains recorded across most districts. Briceño credited these advances to prudent fiscal management and targeted investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
For the 2025/26 fiscal year, the government projects $1.74 billion in revenues and grants, a $94 million (6%) increase over the previous period. This growth is attributed to improved tax collection and a $53 million boost in bilateral and multilateral grants. Total expenditures are set at $1.78 billion, comprising $1.25 billion in recurrent spending and a record $528.8 million allocated for capital investments, representing 30% of total expenditure —the highest ever for Belize. Capital priorities include healthcare, education, infrastructure, and renewable energy, with major initiatives such as the national rollout of the National Health Insurance (NHI) program, road upgrades, and over $300 million in clean energy projects.
Salaries and pensions account for $698 million, or 56% of recurrent expenditure, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase. An $80 million reclassification from subsidies and transfers to personal emoluments was made to better align with fiscal obligations. The budget introduces tax reforms aimed at boosting efficiency and compliance, including the creation of a Semi-Autonomous Revenue Authority (SARA) and the implementation of electronic invoicing to reduce evasion. Over 5,000 workers have benefited from recent tax relief measures, which raised the exemption threshold and introduced a new tax credit, collectively adding $5 million in disposable income.
With GDP projected to surpass $7 billion, the government anticipates a primary surplus of 1.52% of GDP ($106 million) and an overall deficit of 0.59% ($41.6 million). Debt servicing is expected to remain below eight cents per dollar spent. However, Belize’s budget faces external risks, including rising U.S. tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the approval of a $125 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact. Contingency plans include leveraging a World Bank Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (CAT-DDO).
While the government touts its fiscal achievements, the Opposition has expressed concern about the heavy emphasis on infrastructure at the expense of other pressing needs. As the three-day budget debate approaches, scheduled to begin on May 26 in the House of Representatives, public attention will center on how the government intends to balance the revenue-expenditure gap and manage public sector wage negotiations without resorting to excessive borrowing or tax increases. The administration’s challenge will be to uphold fiscal discipline while delivering on its ambitious development agenda.
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