Weekly Weather Outlook for Belize

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

 

Valid Time: Monday, Jan. 23, 2012 until Monday, Jan. 30, 2012

Feature(s) of Interest:

A stable and drier south-easterly airflow will prevail over the NW Caribbean and Belize during the next three to four days.  A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning and will move slowly across the Gulf during the next 72 to 96 hours.  The cold front will increase in forward speed later on Thursday and Friday, and is expected to move into the western Caribbean and across Belize by early Saturday.  The approach of this cold front on Friday will induce outbreaks of showers and a few thunderstorms over western and north-western Belize.  This activity will spread over the rest of Belize on Saturday, moving offshore on Sunday.

We can expect fair, sunny weather on Monday through Thursday, with only isolated showers.  Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase later on Thursday and Friday as the cold front approach and move across the Yucatan peninsula.  The cold front will then move across the country of Belize late Friday and early Saturday.

Daily rainfall totals will range from 0.01-0.25 of-an-inch on Monday through Thursday, concentrated mostly over central and hill areas,. Rainfall totals will increase later on Thursday through Monday, with daily totals in the range of 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch. The weekend will be generally cloudy, cool and rainy.

 

Fig. 1 GOES

Fig. 1 GOES Satellite image valid for 3:15 pm, Monday Jan. 23, 2012, showing little in the form of dense rainclouds over and offshore Belize

 

Fig. 2 NWS

Fig. 2 NWS Surface Map valid for 6:00 am Monday, Jan. 23, 2012, showing weak cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico. Weak ridge extends into the NW Caribbean from High pressure center in the western Atlantic.

 

Fig. 3 NHC

Fig. 3 NHC 72-hour forecast surface map valid for 6:00 am Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 showing the cold front becoming better define as it drifts across the central Gulf of Mexico.

 

Fig. 4 GFS

Fig. 4 GFS model, 24 hour rainfall projection, showing accumulations of 1.25-1.50 inches of rainfall over NW Belize, as of 6:00 pm, Friday, Jan. 28, 2012, as cold front approach from the Yucatan area.

 

Fig. 5 GFS

Fig. 5 GFS 850 mb level (5,000ft) 144 hour vorticity projection, valid for 6:00 am Sunday, Jan. 29, 2012, showing cold front across the NW Caribbean and a moderate NW airflow prevailing over the southern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean.

 

Belize Five-day Outlook for Agriculture and Industry

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sunday

Jan. 23, 2012
Jan. 24, 2012
Jan. 25, 2012
Jan. 26, 2012
Jan. 27, 2012
Jan. 28, 2012
Jan. 29, 2012
Sunny with cloudy spells. Few showers mainly over the central  coast and hillsRainfall: 0.10- 0.25 of-an-inchMostly sunny with little or no rainfall.Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inchMostly sunny with little or no rainfall.Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inchSunny with cloudy spells.  Few showers mostly over central areasRainfall: 0.10-0.25 of-an-inchSunny with cloudy spells. Few showers mainly over western and north-western areasRainfall: 0.50-0.75 of-an-inchMostly cloudy with showers developing over most districts.Rainfall: minimal 0.50-0.75 of-an-inchMostly cloudy and cool with showers & rain concentrated mainly over Stann Creek & Toledo districts & southern waters.Rainfall: 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch

 

Monday, Jan. 23, 2012
RFrutos, Agrometeorologist/Hydrologist

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