Weather Outlook for Belize Feb. 27 – Mar. 5

Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

Valid Time: Monday, Feb. 27, 2012 until Monday, Mar. 5, 2012

Feature(s) of Interest:

The feature of interest this working week will be a persistent ridge of high pressure extending from the north-western Atlantic to the western Caribbean. This feature will keep a fresh and relatively unstable easterly airflow prevailing through Thursday, and will favour some showers, mostly over the sea and coast during the morning and inland during the afternoon hours.

A cold front will move SE across the Gulf of Mexico as we move into the weekend, but the models are predicting that the frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary over the SE Gulf and the Bay of Campeche by late Sunday and early Monday. The proximity of the frontal boundary to the NW Caribbean will result in a backing in the low level flow, with the winds shifting to the N and NE, and favouring some pre-frontal showers later on Sunday and Monday over Belize.

The weather will be seasonally fair with cloudy spells on Monday through Thursday. We can expect some showers mostly over the coastal zone during the morning hours and over some inland places during the afternoon and evening. Conditions will become drier and warmer on Friday through most of Sunday with little rainfall. Showers will increase once again during the afternoon and night on Sunday through Monday due to the proximity of the next frontal zone near the Yucatan peninsula.

Daily rainfall accumulations from Monday through Thursday of this week will range from 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch, decreasing later on Thursday through most of Sunday. Daily rainfall totals will increase later on Sunday through Monday, with totals ranging from 0.25-0.50 of-an-inch over central and northern coastal areas and over the sea. Elsewhere, rainfall totals on Sunday through Monday will be in the range of 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch.

 

Fig. 1: Surface isobaric map valid for 12:00 pm, Monday, Feb. 27, 2012, superimposed on the 3:00 pm visible satellite image showing a high pressure ridge extending SW from a High centered near Bermuda to the NW Caribbean. The moderate pressure gradient is generating a fresh and relatively unstable easterly wind-flow over Belize, favorable for some showers.

 

Fig. 2: NHC 72-hour forecast surface map valid for 6:00 am Thursday, Mar. 1, 2012 showing seasonal ESE’ly airflow prevailing over the NW Caribbean and Belize

 

Fig. 3: GFS Model 850 mb (5,000 ft) level 156 hour vorticity projection valid for 6:00 pm Sunday, Feb. 5, 2012, showing quasi-stationary front across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. The proximity of the frontal boundary will result in a backing of the low level wind-flow to the NE, favouring pre-frontal showers, especially along the coast.

 

Fig. 4: GFS model 168 hour rainfall projection, showing accumulations of 0.25-0.50 of-an- inch of rainfall over coastal Belize, as of 6:00 am, Monday, March 5, 2012, as a cold front approach from the NW and a continental high builds over the south-east USA. This front will become diffused across the Se Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche.

Belize Five-day Outlook for Agriculture and Industry…

MonTueWedThuFriSatSunday
Feb. 27, 2012Feb. 28, 2012Feb. 29, 2012Mar. 1, 2012Mar. 2, 2012Mar.3, 2012Mar. 4, 2012
Mostly sunny with isolated showers.

 

Rainfall: 0.01- 0.10 of-an-inch

Cloudy at times with a few showers.

 

Rainfall: 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch

Cloudy at times with a few showers.

Rainfall: 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch

Mostly sunny with isolated showers.

Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inch

Mostly sunny and dry.

 

Rainfall: nil

 

Mostly sunny and dry.

 

Rainfall: nil

Cloudy at times with a few showers.

Rainfall: 0.10-0.25  of-an-inch

 

Monday,
Feb. 27, 2012
RFrutos, Agrometeorologist/Hydrologist

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