Weekly Weather Outlook for March 26 – April 2

Tuesday, March 27th, 2012


Valid Time: March 26 – April 2, 2012

Feature(s) of Interest:

The feature of interest this week will continue to be a relatively stable and fresh Easterly to South-easterly airflow over the NW Caribbean, generated by a weakening Atlantic High and a broad low pressure system over Texas and Mexico. An active cold front system will move off the Texas Gulf coast at the end of the period on Monday, and will move vigorously south eastwards across the Gulf, reaching Yucatan and Belize by late Tuesday of next week.

We can therefore expect seasonally fair and sunny weather to continue through this week, with a few brief, daytime showers, especially in the central coastal areas during the morning hours, and over inland regions during the afternoon. Prefrontal thunderstorms are likely on Sunday, with increasing showers on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Daily rainfall accumulations during this week will be minimal, ranging from 0.01-0.10 of-an-inch, especially over central regions and the hills. The 2012 Dry Season will continue across the nation over the next seven days. The best chance for thunderstorms and showers will be over the weekend on Sunday and Monday. The unsettled weather will continue on Tuesday of next week. Beware of Bush Fires! Avoid setting fires…

 

Fig. 1a NHC Surface map valid for 9:00 pm, Monday, March 26, 2012, showing weak surface trough over western Yucatan. Tail-end of a cold front noted over Cuba. Easterly airflow over Belize and the NW Caribbean.

 

Fig. 1b Surface map and GOES IR Satellite picture valid for 9:00 pm, Monday, March 26, 2012, showing weak pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and Belize. Little in the form of rain clouds over Belize.

 

Fig. 2 NHC 72-hour forecast surface map valid for 6:00 pm Thursday, March 29, 2012 showing weak trough over western Yucatan and stable SE’ly airflow prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

 

Fig. 3 GFS model 144-hour rainfall projection, showing previous 24-hour rainfall accumulations of 0.50-0.75 of-an- inch of rainfall over central & western Belize, ending at of 6:00 pm, Sunday, April 1, 2012, associated with surface trough over Central America and eastern Mexico.

 

Fig. 4 GFS Model 850 mb (5,000 ft) level 168 hour vorticity projection valid for 6:00 pm Monday, April 2, 2012, showing active cold front moving SE across the western Gulf of Mexico. The approach and passage of this cold front over Belize will provoke outbreaks of showers & thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and night.

 

Fig. 5 GOES IR satellite image valid for 12:15 am, Tuesday, March 27, 2012, showing little or no rain clouds over and offshore Belize.

 

Belize Five-day Outlook for Agriculture and Industry…

MonTueWedThuFriSatSunday
Mar. 26, 2012Mar. 27, 2012 Mar. 28, 2012Mar. 29, 2012Mar. 30, 2012Mar.31, 2012April 1, 2012
Sunny with cloudy spells and mild. Isolated, showers

Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inch

Sunny with cloudy spells and mild. Isolated, showers

Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inch

Sunny and warmer. Little or no rainfall

 

Rainfall: 0.01-0.10of-an-inch

Sunny and warm. Mostly dry

 

Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inch

Sunny and warm. Dry

 

Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inch

 

Sunny and warm. Dry

 

Rainfall: 0.01-0.10 of-an-inch

Sunny with cloudy spells and mild. Few moderate showers

 

Rainfall: 0.10-0.25  of-an-inch mostly central coast

Monday
Mar. 26, 2012
RFrutos, Agrometeorologist/Hydrologist


 

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