Weekly Weather Outlook for Belize: May 14th to 21st

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012


Valid Time: May 14 – May 21, 2012
Issued: 9:00 pm Sunday, May 13, 2012

Feature(s) of Interest:

A quasi-stationary front over the Louisiana Gulf Coast to the central Gulf of Mexico has an induced surface trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. These features together with a divergent SW’ly airstream from the Pacific aloft, have been generating outbreaks of thunderstorms and showers over Campeche, El Peten and western and southern Belize over the past 24-36 hours.

Analysis of the upper level weather charts show that the winter-time westerlies have now become disrupted over the subtropics, which is indicating a return to a summer pattern and the gradual onset of the 2012 rainy season. The GFS model projections of stability indices, surface pressure pattern and low level winds for the next five to seven days points to an increase in moisture and instability in the NW Caribbean and over northern Central America, as a surface low pressure system tries to become organized this week, and evolves into the first weak disturbance for the season just over and offshore Belize. The low will remain stationary just offshore central Belize on Thursday, and will then begin to track NNE into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the coming weekend. Cloudy and unsettled weather will therefore persist over Belize during most of this week, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more persistent on Thursday through Monday of next week. This could mark the beginning of the rainy season for Belize. However, it is likely that the onset of the rains will be gradual in most places as we move towards June, but yes, the transition to a rainy season airflow pattern is almost completed as we should see more rainy days over the next seven to ten days.

Daily rainfall accumulations will be in the range of 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch over western and southern areas on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, with amounts of 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch along the coast. Daily accumulations of 1.25-2.00 inches are likely, especially along the coast and the central highlands as the surface low forms and deepen just over and offshore the central coast of Belize by late Wednesday and Thursday.

Fig. 1a GOES IR Satellite picture for 7:45 pm, Sunday, May 13, 2012, showing a large cluster of thunderstorms over Campeche and SW Yucatan extending SE to near north-western Belize. Weaker rainclouds noted over El Peten and western Toledo District.

 

Fig. 1b is the Surface map for 6:00 pm, May 13, 2012, showing a quasi stationary front over the central Gulf of Mexico, inducing a surface trough over Yucatan.

 

Fig. 2 NHC 72-hour forecast surface map valid for 6:00 am Wednesday, May 16, 2012 showing developing low pressure system just offshore the coast of Belize. The isobaric map also shows the 10 m (30ft) surface winds in the NW Caribbean mostly from the East blowing at a fresh 15-20 knots over the open sea. The green shaded areas are the previous 6 hr rainfall of 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch along the coast of Belize and offshore.

 

Fig. 3 96-hour rainfall projection of the GFS model, valid for 6:00 am Thursday, May 17, 2012 showing previous 24-hour rainfall accumulations of 1.50-2.00 inches along the coast of Belize and 1.00 – 1.25 inch as a tropical disturbance tries to develop just offshore Belize.

 

Fig. 4 GFS 850 mb (5,000ft) level vorticity projection valid for 6:00 am Monday, May 21, 2012 showing developing low pressure disturbance near the coast of Belize, moving NNE to the Florida east central coast Wednesday of next week.

 

Belize Five-day Outlook for Agriculture and Industry…

MonTueWedThuFriSatSunday
May 14, 2012May 15, 2012 May 16, 2012May 17, 2012May 18, 2012May 19, 2012May 20, 2012
Cloudy with sunny spells. Outbreaks of moderate showers and thunderstorms.

 

Rainfall: 0.25-0.50 of-an-inch

Cloudy with sunny spells. Outbreaks of moderate showers and thunderstorms.

 

Rainfall: 0.25-0.50 of-an-inch

Cloudy with sunny spells. Outbreaks of moderate showers and thunderstorms.

 

Rainfall: 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch

Cloudy with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the coast & sea.

Rainfall: 1.50-1.75 inch

Cloudy with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the coast & sea.

Rainfall:

0.75-1.00 inch

 

Cloudy with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the coast, hills and South.

Rainfall:

0.75-1.00 inch

Cloudy with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over most places

 

Rainfall:

0.75-1.00 inch

Monday
May 14, 2012
RFrutos, Agrometeorologist/Hydrologist


 

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