The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season which includes the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico area came to an end on November 30th. The 2012 hurricane season saw 19 named systems, one of which put Belize’s emergency plan to a test. This occurred when hurricane Ernesto made landfall south of Mahahual in the state of Quintana Roo Mexico on the 27th August at about 9:15PM. The 2012 season was considered to have been well above-average and differed from what was projected at the start of the season.
The hurricane season, which begins on June 1st and ends on the 30th of November, did not bring any hurricane systems directly to Belize. Chief Meteorologist Dennis Gonguez of the Belize Meteorological Service outlined the season, looking back at the activities in the Atlantic area. “This past 2012 hurricane season was rather active. We saw well above average tropical cyclone activities. During this year there were 19 named systems and in a typical year you would have about nine to ten so we saw almost twice as many systems this year. Of the 19 named systems, ten became hurricanes and in a typical year we would have about six hurricanes; again it shows that the activities were well above normal. Of the ten hurricanes, one became a major hurricane (Hurricane Michael – Cat 3). So this year’s activities were well above normal”.
He also added that the forecast did not stand out as projected, as there were more named storms than there were intense systems, stating that “the suppressing phenomenon” which the forecasters had expected did not develop as strongly and as timely as projected. “The El Niño phenomenon, which normally has a dampening affect on our hurricane season did not evolve as strongly as we had expected, so we did not have that increase in storm intensity this year,” said Gonguez.
Meanwhile Belize was spared a major blow from the forces of 85-mile per hour Hurricane Ernesto, the only storm that came near to Belize. The rains of Ernesto however, combined with a tropical wave a week after, left major portions of northern Belize under water. “Hurricane Ernesto did produce significant rain fall. However it was the tropical wave that passed a week or so later that caused major flooding in the northern part of the country, which was the major occurrence for the country during the 2012 hurricane season,” said Gonguez.
“Even though we kind of dodged the bullet with hurricane Ernesto, we should not be too complacent. In a busy year we may not see a system, however in a quiet year you can get hit by one single system which could disrupt your country for the next five or six years. So the forecast may tell how active the season may be, but it does not tell where the systems will make landfall,” advised Gonguez, who further stated that Belize was tested and that the country’s forecast and emergency plan was well prepared when tested by Ernesto.
Meteorologist Gonguez ended by advising Belizeans to take the other six months and do a post mortem of their personal and family emergency plan. “Let’s see where the plan failed, especially when they were tested during hurricane Ernesto, and let’s sort out and look and see how we can improve on those failures and weaknesses in our emergency plan,” added Gonguez.
A few important fact about the the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is that it tied with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season and is the third most active year in recorded history. In addition over half of the tropical cyclones that developed in the season made landfall or directly impacted land. Two hurricanes, Sandy and Isaac, were the deadliest and most destructive. Sandy caused at least US$65.5 billion in damage and is the second costliest hurricane in recorded history (the costliest being Hurricane Katrina). It caused 253 deaths over the seven countries in its path. Isaac caused an estimated US$2.3 billion and 41 deaths. Closer to Belize, Ernesto was a long-tracked Category 1 hurricane that ultimately made landfall north of Belize in southern Mexico, causing a total of 12 deaths and producing damages totaling US$252.2 million. The combined storms during the entire season killed at least 320 people and caused at least US$68 billion in damages, making it the deadliest season since 2008, and the costliest since 2005.
