Tropical Storm Julia as of 4:00 pm local time was located near latitude 13.0N, longitude 74.7W or about 450 miles east of La Providencia, Colombia. Julia was moving to the west at 18mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars. A generally westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning until the system makes landfall in Nicaragua as a category one hurricane. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall with the system becoming a remnant low by Sunday night into Monday morning. Direct landfall from this system is not expected in Belize and hence tropical storm or hurricane conditions are unlikely to affect Belize. However, the system will be a heavy rainfall producer (showers and thunderstorms), which could lead to widespread flooding across the country, especially over the south.
A moist north-easterly airflow ahead of this system is supporting rainfall across the country with totals of one to two inches expected today Friday; another one to two inches on Saturday, three to five inches on Sunday and Monday, and then decreasing to one to two inches on Tuesday as the remnants of the system moves away. Note that these are model estimates and we may experience higher amounts. Squally conditions and moderate to rough seas are expected. The worst-case scenario of direct landfall in Belize is not likely as the models are tightly clustered on a westward motion towards Nicaragua. It now appears that the west-north-westward turn after landfall will not be sufficient to have the centre re-emerge over the Gulf of Honduras.
NEMO advises the public to remain vigilant throughout the long weekend. The weather conditions over the weekend may lead to flooding in low-lying areas. Check your family/emergency plan and check on vulnerable family members, particularly the elderly and persons with disabilities. Be prepared to take the necessary actions to save lives. If you must evacuate, go to higher grounds, do not wait until it is too late and always move before nightfall. Avoid walking or driving through flood waters. Six inches of running water can knock you off your feet. One foot of water can sweep your vehicle away. Drive slowly and put on your hazard lights if you must drive in the rain.
NEMO’s emergency hotline is 936. Stay alert and be prepared.
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