As the Caribbean enters its peak tourism season, the region is experiencing a mix of warm and dry conditions, with some areas facing drought. Belize, for example, is currently in its typical dry season, which lasts from November to April. During this time, daytime temperatures can reach up to 28°C (82°F), while nighttime temperatures typically range from 23°C to 25 °C (73°F to 77°F). This stable weather pattern is expected to persist, with minimal rainfall anticipated.
The rest of the Caribbean is also experiencing dry weather, with approximately eight hours of daily sunshine and minimal precipitation, making it an ideal destination for tourism and water activities. Southern islands, such as Barbados and St. Lucia, are experiencing highs of 30°C, while northern islands, including Jamaica and Cuba, are experiencing temperatures around 29°C.
As summer approaches, the region is expected to transition into a dry season, potentially arriving earlier than usual, with intensified heat waves predicted. Drought conditions are already evident in some areas, including parts of southern Belize and the Bahamas. Last year, Belize experienced one of the most severe droughts in recent history, with a significant impact on agriculture and causing water levels at the Chalillo Dam hydroelectric reservoir to drop to dangerously low levels. As a result, the country had to implement power rationing due to strained electricity production. In some areas, rivers slowed down or dried up entirely after months without rain.
Additionally, due to the severe droughts, Belize faced devastating wildfires in 2024, particularly in the Toledo District, which was hard-hit. These fires destroyed over 10,000 hectares of agricultural land and displaced hundreds of families. The damage was estimated at approximately $8 million and led to serious respiratory health issues due to the poor air quality. Communities like San Pedro Columbia suffered extensive losses, as farms were destroyed and livelihoods disrupted.
While the northwestern Caribbean may face a more severe dry season, regions like the Lesser Antilles and the Guianas are likely to experience normal or even higher rainfall totals from now until April. However, significant increases in rainfall intensity are expected from April to May.
According to climate forecasts, central Belize is likely to experience long-term drought conditions again due to above-average ocean temperatures, which are increasing heat stress in the region. The risk of wildfires remains high as hot and dry conditions persist. Since 1960, Belize has experienced a rise in mean annual temperatures of 0.45°C, leading to more frequent hot days and nights. A recent example of this was observed during an extreme heatwave in Brazil, where the city of Rio de Janeiro recorded temperatures of up to 44°C (111°F), the highest since the city established its climate alert system a decade ago.
The Belize Meteorological Service closely monitors the weather for the entire county and provides updates to help everyone prepare for a potential heatwave. In the meantime, residents and visitors are encouraged to enjoy the warm weather and stay hydrated.
