Drought Risk Grows in Belize as El Niño Conditions Strengthen

Belize received a drought warning on August 25th as scientists cautioned that a strengthening El Niño could bring hotter weather and reduced rainfall across the region. The warning comes as Panama and El Salvador have declared emergencies over El Niño-related drought conditions, highlighting growing concerns across Central America.
The warning is linked to shifting weather patterns associated with El Niño that can reduce atmospheric moisture and suppress rainfall. El Niño is expected to affect the region more strongly during the upcoming dry season, which typically begins around November and December.
Belizean forecasters have already identified northwestern areas of the country as particularly vulnerable to drought conditions through September. Agricultural losses are possible if rain-fed crops do not receive adequate rainfall or supplemental irrigation. The broader regional concern is that below-average rainfall during the wet season could leave reservoirs, waterways, and soil moisture levels depleted before the dry season begins.
Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck, climatologist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, said there are indications that several parts of the region could experience drier conditions in the coming months. “There are strong signs that much of the region can expect drier conditions in the coming months, particularly in the eastern and southern Caribbean and in the Guianas, but over the summertime it is typically the northern islands in the Caribbean, and Belize is included as well, when an El Niño is stifling the atmosphere and depriving it of its moisture and leading to less rainfall,” he said.
Van Meerbeeck added that the most severe effects may not be experienced immediately. “We are not expecting to see the worst impact of the drought until we are way into the dry season,” he said.
He also warned that northwestern Belize, in particular, risks being affected through September. According to Van Meerbeeck, crop yields could decline without preventative measures such as mulching or irrigation.
Belize and the wider region could face increasingly hot and dry conditions if El Niño continues to strengthen, raising concerns for agriculture and water supplies. With Panama and El Salvador already responding to drought conditions, authorities across the region are expected to continue monitoring weather patterns in the months ahead.