Atlantic Remains Hurricane-Free, but Season Is Far from Over

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has yet to produce a hurricane as September draws to a close. Tropical storms have formed, but none has reached hurricane strength as of September 29. The season continues through November 30, so the absence of a hurricane so far does not mean the threat has passed.
The National Hurricane Center was issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Hanna on September 29. Fay had weakened from a tropical storm, while Hanna remained over the Atlantic. Neither system threatened Belize.
El Niño may be contributing to the quieter Atlantic season. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño generally increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. NOAA forecasts a greater chance of a below-normal Atlantic season this year, though that outlook does not rule out hurricanes before the season ends.
Meanwhile, the Pacific has seen much stronger storms. Hurricane Polo crossed Mexico’s Baja California Sur peninsula and reached the mainland state of Sonora on September 29th, bringing damaging winds and heavy rain. Authorities warned of flooding and mudslides as the storm moved inland. Farther west, Hurricane Nolo was active in the central Pacific near Hawaii, while Tropical Storm Rachel was moving across the eastern Pacific.
The difference between the two regions is consistent with a pattern often associated with El Niño. While increased wind shear can hinder hurricane development in the Atlantic, conditions in parts of the eastern and central Pacific can become more favorable for storms. That does not mean El Niño alone determines whether an individual storm forms or intensifies.
The active Pacific systems pose no threat to Belize. Locally, residents should continue to follow updates from the National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Hurricane Center throughout the rest of the Atlantic season. A quiet season to date offers no guarantee about conditions in October or November.