Weekly Weather Outlook: Sun, Aug 12 – Mon, Aug 20

Monday, August 13th, 2012

PERIOD: Sunday-Monday, Aug. 12-20, 2012
DATE ISSUED: Sunday, Aug. 12, 2012 ─ 6:00 pm

RFrutos
EcoSolutions & Services
________________________________________

SYNOPSIS: An active tropical wave, the remnants of tropical depression seven, is moving into the central Caribbean this evening. This tropical wave is tracking westward at 20 mph. At this rate this system will reach the shores of Belize late Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will begin affecting areas of coastal Belize as early as Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The airflow over the NW Caribbean will remain moist and unstable on Thursday through Sunday, supporting more outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over most districts.

Rainfall rates will be in the range of 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch on Sunday, Monday and most of Tuesday. Daily rainfall rates will be on the increase, especially over central and northern areas from Tuesday night through Thursday, ranging from 1.00-2.00 inches. Over other areas daily rainfall rates will be in the range of 0.50-1.00 inch during this period. Rainfall rates for Friday through Sunday will range from 0.25-0.75 of-an-inch concentrated mostly over central and northern coastal areas.

Figure 1 GOES IR Satellite picture for 5:00 pm, Sunday Aug. 12, 2012, showing intense thunderstorm clusters over northern Guatemala, western and north-western Yucatan. Weaker convection is evident over western and northern Belize.

 

Figure 2 Surface map valid for 3:00 pm Sunday, Aug. 12, 2012, showing an active tropical wave, (remnants of TD 7) heading into the central Caribbean at about 20 mph.

 

Belize Seven-day Outlook for Agriculture and Industry…

SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Aug. 12, 2012Aug. 13, 2012 Aug. 14, 2012Aug. 15, 2012Aug. 16, 2012Aug. 17, 2012Aug. 18, 2012
Sunny with cloudy spells.  Few showers & thunderstormsRainfall:

0.10-0.25 inch

 Sunny with cloudy spells.  Few showers & thunderstormsRainfall:

0.10-0.25 inch

Cloudy at times with some showers & thunderstormsRainfall:

0.50- 0.75 of-an-inch

Cloudy with outbreaks of showers & thunderstorms especially over central & northern areasRainfall:

1.00 – 2.00 inches

Cloudy with more showers & thunder-storms especially over coastal areasRainfall:

1.00- 2.00 inches

Mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms over most districtsRainfall:

0.50–1.00  inch

Cloudy at times with a few showers & thunderstorms along coast and the hillsRainfall:

0.25-0.75 of-an-inch

 

Figure 3 NHC 72-hr forecast surface map, valid for 6:00 am Wednesday, August 15, 2012, showing the active Tropical Wave (remnants of TD 7) in the NW Caribbean along 85 deg. W. This tropical wave will cross Belize on Wednesday night and early Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the TW will begin affecting Belize late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

Figure 4 GFS model daily rainfall projection at 84 hours ending 12:00 am, Thursday August 16, 2012, showing weak surface low near the coast of Belize. Rainfall accumulation of 0.75-1.75 inches per day concentrated over central and northern coastal areas.

 

Fig. 5 GFS Model 84-hr vorticity projection at 5,000 ft level or 850 mb, valid for 12:00 am Thursday, August 16, 2012, weak cyclonic vorticity maximum (yellow shaded areas) over southern Belize and the Bay of Campeche. Wave axis evident over Belize and in the Bay of Campeche.

 

OUTLOOK FOR THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION (MDR) OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A TROPICAL WAVE…THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN…MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARUB NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

2. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FORECASTER BLAKE

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